A Slippery Slope: The Domestic Diffusion of Ethnic Civil War

The vast majority of civil wars occurs in a small number of countries. Our study of multiethnic states of the post-World War II era explains how one intrastate conflict may trigger additional ethnic rebellions in the same country. States such as Burma, Ethiopia, India, and Sudan are sad examples of this dynamic. More concretely, we outline the motivational and opportunistic consequences that one civil war has on potential ethnic challengers.
 
On the motivation side, ongoing fighting may cause collateral damage among nearby but previously neutral groups. In turn, members of the peaceful ethnic group get upset about state violence and decide to take up arms to defend themselves. Our second motivational mechanism argues that an ongoing civil war encourages already disaffected groups to take up rebellion as a strategy. Other groups' rebellions provie the blueprint how to overcome dissatisfaction with preexisting political discrimination by the state.
 
With respect to opportunity, we argue that ongoing civil wars can provide important signals on the government's fighting ability. If the government is strong it will crush any rebellion quickly. If it fails to defeat an active rebel organization, other ethnic groups perceive the government as weak and see their chance to gain concessions. A similar dynamic is at play, when the government fights multiple challengers at the same time. In both scenarios, longer and a larger number of civil wars, governments experience a significant drain on their resources due to running military costs. This makes it possible for additional ethnic challenger that were too weak to confront the government alone to join the fray.
 
To sum up, governments that decide to violently confront rebel movements rather than giving in to their demands enter a slippery slope that may lead to even more civil wars. Why then do governments fight rebels rather than accommodate them? Previous studies show that giving in to rebel demands also makes governments appear weak and potentially triggers additional challenges. Future research will have to uncover the exact conditions under which governments prefer one risk over the other.
 
Our study adds to the previous understanding of the conflict trap that focused mostly on recurrences of the same conflicts. We also believe that our findings are very relevant for counterinsurgency and peacekeeping strategies. In addition to ending one civil war and keeping it peaceful, governments and international institutions need to contain civil wars in space. Otherwise, they are very likely to infecting other ethnic groups in the same country.

Full Text PDF   Find Replication Data
Discuss this Article
ua0auyayesr caetserse
Wednesday, March 14, 2018 4:11 AM
Publication is good and i can learning more about that. The writing tools and materials to be shared for the students by via online. Recruit the best writers for their writing company. New and innovative writing structure is used for making your writing papers. The scholarship essay writing service is operate more scholarship papers in online
Alina Olive
Wednesday, April 25, 2018 12:43 AM
We have distinctive kind of specialists around us. Out of various callings, the paper composing administrations expressions system is the surprising one. Do My College Homework. These folks jump at the chance to give the new plans to individuals to think and they additionally get a kick out of the chance to decipher their own considerations as far as pictures.
Magill Harville
Tuesday, May 8, 2018 6:35 AM
This makes it workable for extra ethnic challenger that were excessively frail, Essay Editing Services UK making it impossible to stand up to the administration alone to join the shred.
Mark John
Monday, May 14, 2018 1:03 AM
Things are very open and intensely clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very beneficial. Hibernate Assignment Help

Mark John
Monday, May 14, 2018 1:03 AM
I’m really impressed with your article, such great & usefull knowledge you mentioned here proposal essay topics for college students

Mark John
Monday, May 14, 2018 1:04 AM
Pretty helpful material, much thanks for this article Nursing Dissertation Writing Service

John Collin
Monday, May 14, 2018 5:38 AM
Most likely this is a phenomenal post I got a ton of learning in the wake of perusing good fortunes.
Subject of website is magnificent there is very nearly everything to peruse, Brilliant post liquid coffee
Darvell man
Sunday, May 20, 2018 3:12 PM
Stephen Hawking
Monday, May 21, 2018 4:55 AM
We take a look at our mechanisms in all multi ethnic states with a history of armed struggle between 1946 and 2006. Using Geographic Information Systems, we assemble overlap and minimum distance measures among ethnic businesses’ agreement styles and war zones.
Online essay writing service
Vishal Tyagi
Thursday, May 24, 2018 6:18 AM
Hey, Here we are going to share one of the best free online gin rummy games which are of cards games and also you can enjoy these games online in the best quality. Try out these games for once.
aadil khan
Sunday, June 3, 2018 1:32 AM
the game thanjs
renuka singh
Thursday, June 7, 2018 5:49 AM
The blog is really appreciable and i like to keep on visiting this site once again that it would help me in further thanks for sharing the info.
Best Engineering College in North India

MBA college in punjab
Mark John
Saturday, June 9, 2018 3:49 AM
Things are very open and intensely clear explanation of issues. was truly information. Your website is very beneficial. Academic Writing Service

Mark John
Saturday, June 9, 2018 3:50 AM
I’m really impressed with your article, such great & usefull knowledge you mentioned here Writing A Case Study

Mark John
Saturday, June 9, 2018 3:50 AM
The leading assignment help UK firm offers state of the art services to its clients with a promise of delivering all the required work well within the deadline. ColdFusion Assignment Help

Mark John
Saturday, June 9, 2018 3:51 AM
This is really great work. Thank you for sharing such a good and useful information here in the blog for students. BBA Project Help

renuka singh
Monday, June 11, 2018 6:13 AM
Apple products are revered for its quality, precision and great design. SRSG started its operations as Apple technology partners in the year 1997.
Apple product dealers in delhi
Apple authorized service center in Kolkata
FM Channel License
Media office interiors
Apple Product Dealers in Ahmedabad

tomas wilson
Monday, June 11, 2018 6:25 AM
This is a worrying trend and more needs to be done to regulate this issue.
Tomas | www.carpetcleaningnv.com
Mkt Bhavish
Tuesday, June 12, 2018 5:17 AM
Our academic pursuits, along with a range of extracurricular activities, help in honing a child's skills and ensuring that he/she grows to be a mature and responsible citizen.

top school in greater noida

admission 2018 top school in greater Noida
Mkt Bhavish
Tuesday, June 12, 2018 5:17 AM
VIGYAN DHARA is the first Indian IIT-JEE/ NEET/AIIMS coaching Institute which is purely based on Historical Indian Education System that is the Gurukul Tradition of Education where students leave their homes during their studies.
PMT coaching institute in hisar
Acting classes in Delhi
IIT coaching institute in hisar
Mkt Bhavish
Tuesday, June 12, 2018 5:18 AM
Moonlight Films and Theatre Studio operates under the Moonlight Films and Theatre Society , a non-profit association whose goals are to spread knowledge of and interest in theatrical and media arts through education.
PMT Coaching center in hisar
Acting school in Delhi
IIT Coaching center in hisar
Jacob liam
Friday, June 15, 2018 3:32 AM
When you must switch to the World Wide Web to search for some Assignment help. Our high expert's professionals who have extensive experience in writing assignment will not only make you avail with the quality assignment, but you will also get plagiarism free assignment within the given time. Assignment Help
Jacob liam
Friday, June 15, 2018 5:17 AM
We Provide assignment help for students especially in usa getting brilliant quality reviews writing USA, essays and dissertations.We at Top Quality Assignment believe that there is no shortcut to success and to attain success, hard work, dedication, and commitment must be present.Allassignmenthelp reviews best in writing unique Assignment.
AllAssignmentHelp reviews 
Michael John
Sunday, July 1, 2018 11:59 PM
We charge low and effortlessly moderate cost for our modest online task enable UK. essay writing help
Adam Z
Tuesday, July 3, 2018 9:36 PM
super interesting to learn about this, hopefully something good comes of it.
Adam -
mandyrose Rose
Wednesday, July 4, 2018 1:15 AM
Google
Google
[Google](https://www.google.com)

Which One.
Adam Z
Wednesday, July 4, 2018 9:31 PM
aaron Johnson
Wednesday, July 4, 2018 9:36 PM
Very cool to see, thanks for the update.
Aaron - photo booth Winnipeg
Seerat Ali
Thursday, July 5, 2018 2:37 AM
This is the most impressive article on your website, thanks for constantly working on replenishing the material like this. good work I appreciate your work. Today I got my favourite blog Thanks for writing
Yeh Hai Mohabbatein Star Plus
Seerat Ali
Thursday, July 5, 2018 8:54 AM
Sir It is a good and helpful information and it is kind of nice to know exactly you published this information here, along with I found a valuable post on your blog. Great work thanks for writing
Yeh Rishta Kya Kehlata Hai Star Plus
Seerat Ali
Friday, July 6, 2018 2:52 AM
Wow Sir So interesting! I don't believe I truly read your post I was looking this from many time today I got it. So great to find someone with some original thoughts on this topic. Really.. many thanks for starting this up. This website is something That I was needed. Again Thanks
Kaleerein Zee Tv
Alex Martin
Sunday, July 8, 2018 8:06 AM
I would like to thanks for this nice article. This is very helpful indeed.
desert safari
adi kana
Tuesday, July 10, 2018 3:27 AM
I enjoyed over read your blog post. Your blog has nice information.
https://torrent9.sc
aftab ali
Wednesday, July 11, 2018 5:25 AM
There are couple of things that are regular likewise and these are confinements on few amusements and the betting prerequisite. nightrush
elisa wise
Wednesday, July 11, 2018 9:49 PM
Thank you for your sharing. Thanks to this article I can learn more things. Expand your knowledge and abilities. Actually the article is very practical gmail login

Tom Alter
Thursday, July 12, 2018 5:44 AM
This is something good for people who are working for paper writing services especially who are working women. Nice work sharing this work here please.
Make My Assignment
quick help
Tuesday, July 17, 2018 5:04 AM
test test 2 test
Nikki Heysen
Thursday, July 19, 2018 6:29 AM
Need someone to provide you discrete math help? Go nowhere else, just come at Students Assignment Help and resolve all your queries. We will guide you with every form of academic writings and make you class topper.
maitri shah
Wednesday, July 25, 2018 1:49 AM
You have provided an nice article, Thank you very much for this one free gift card generator Keep up the fantastic work on your blog
Yasir Khan
Thursday, July 26, 2018 3:04 PM
Thank You For Providing information. You efforts are admirable and helps me alot. very nice
and here are my sites you can visit and share your opinion as well thanks...!!!
Bepnanh
Naagin 3
Lily Jacob
Monday, July 30, 2018 3:01 AM
This article help me to thanks for sharing these amazing article very good information post i really like it Case Study Online Help..!!
Lillian Ethan
Monday, July 30, 2018 4:41 AM
Article is very informative such a great posting your guide is very great keep more sharing Finance Online Quiz Help
Sophia Ethan
Monday, July 30, 2018 6:49 AM
Very good effort nice posting such a wonder full information post great content shared i very like your article Marketing Essay Writing Service
Merry Rose
Monday, July 30, 2018 8:28 AM
Great posting its very informative for me thanks dear Assignment Help Online
Angel Ella
Monday, July 30, 2018 9:12 AM
These great information i love it these post Online Marketing Homework Help
Becky Spencer
Thursday, August 2, 2018 5:05 AM
Wow you have to great opportunity for the client and i want get Bulk SMS for my business but finally found it! You also check it. well thanks a lot for information keep sharing
Angelica Mandy
Tuesday, August 7, 2018 2:05 AM
Chris Roger
Tuesday, August 7, 2018 1:22 PM
This post is great n rich information. Keep writing good posts like this. Always supporting you hotmail login

Join the Discussion...
Only registered users may post comments.
ISQ On Twitter