Forecasting in International Relations

A final publication on forecasting in international relations from the theme panels at the 50th Annual Convention of the ISA in 2009 has just been published as a special issue of Conflict Management and Peace Science (vol. 28, no. 1, February 2011). The theme of the Convention was “Exploring the Past, Anticipating the Future”. The CMPS issue contains three articles by Siri Rustad, Halvard Buhaug, Åshild Falch & Scott Gates (”All Conflict is Local: Modeling Sub-National Variation in Civil Conflict Risk”), Patrick Brandt, John Freeman & Philip Schrodt (”Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict”), and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (”A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices: Preliminary Tests”), as well as an introduction (”Forecasting in International Relations: One Quest, Three Approaches”) by Gerald Schneider and Sabine Carey  (program chairs for the 2009 Convention) & Nils Petter Gleditsch (President of the ISA 2008-09). Another set of papers from the 2009 Convention was published as a presidential symposium in International Studies Review in March 2010.